When most of us conjure up the image of the perfect festive season, we tend to picture a classic White Christmas.
Though snow on the big day is almost guaranteed in parts of the US like New York, the likelihood of a White Christmas in London or Cardiff is less certain.
Snow has fallen somewhere in the UK on Christmas 38 times since 1965.
But will there be snow on Christmas Day this year?
Will it snow on Christmas Day?
According to the Met Office, for most of the UK Christmas is actually only at the beginning of the period when it’s likely to snow during winter.
Britain is actually more likely to see snow between January and March than in December.
And with climate change raising temperatures over both land and sea, this has reduced the chances of a white Christmas considerably.
When Metro.co.uk asked the Met Office what the chances are of us getting a white Christmas, a spokesperson said ‘it’s a little too far ahead to provide any form of detail’.
They instead referred us to the forecaster’s 30-day outlook, which says: ‘Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely at times, particularly in the east and south, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times.
‘The west and northwest is most likely to see drier weather and sunshine, though this may extend to other parts at times.
‘This will bring potential for fog, frost and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or below average for this time of year, though some milder interludes are possible.
‘There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.’
No mention of snow… but we remain hopeful.
The forecast adds there are ‘mixed signals’ on the weather over Christmas at the moment though – so confidence in the prediction is ‘low’ for now.
‘On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely,’ it says.
In Ireland, there has been a White Christmas roughly every six years since 1941, though none since 2010 – which was also the last proper white Christmas in the UK, and the coldest December for more than 100 years.
What are the odds there will be a White Christmas?
And the bookies have weighed in on what areas of the UK are most likely to see a white Christmas this year.
Alex Apati of Ladbrokes said: ‘We’re fast approaching freezing temperatures and with Christmas around the corner, it’s now looking more likely than ever we’ll see snow.’
According to Ladbrokes, the chance that snow will fall anywhere in the UK on Christmas Day is 1/5.
The probability for a White Christmas in Ediburgh is 2/1 – which is a strong 33%.
It last snowed on Christmas Day in 2010 for Glaswegians and Edinburgers, and the entirety of Northern Scotland has seen a white Christmas 34 times in the past 56 years.
Newcastle’s chances of a White Christmas is 3/1.
Belfast, Cardiff, Dublin, and Manchester all have a 4/1 chance it may snow on Christmas Day.
But Londoners are the least likely to experience a snowball fight on Christmas day as betting markets have put the city at 5/1 – representing a 17% chance.
To qualify for a white Christmas, bookmakers will take their measurements from the main airport in the location offered – and at least 1mm of snow must be recorded.
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